In 1982 Tom Bradley, first and only African-American of Los
Angeles, narrowly lost an election for governor of California despite polls
showing him having an advantage. In 1989 African American L. Douglas Wilder was
elected governor of Virginia by less than half a percent despite polls showing
him with a 9 point lead. That same year David Dinkins was elected mayor of New
York City by less than 3 percentage points just a number of days after polls showed
him leading by 14-18 points. These are only a few examples of elections where
an African American candidate’s results were a lot smaller than what the polls
were predicting. Election Day has all sorts of surprises but some have
suggested that these discrepancies happened because some white voters felt
uncomfortable expressing support for the white candidate out of fear that they
would be perceived as racially prejudiced and so they said they were undecided
or planning to vote for the African American. Andrew Kohut who was president of
Gallup organization during the New York City election suggested another theory
that some white might not have been willing to give answers to these polls.
Kohut said "Poorer,
less well-educated white people refuse surveys more often than affluent,
better-educated whites. Polls generally adjust their samples for this tendency.
But here’s the problem: these whites who do not respond to surveys tend to have
more unfavorable views of blacks than respondents who do the interviews. I’ve
experienced this myself. In 1989, as a Gallup pollster, I overestimated the
support for David Dinkins in his first race for New York City mayor against
Rudolph Giuliani; Mr. Dinkins was elected, but with a two percentage point
margin of victory, not the 15 I had predicted. I concluded, eventually, that I
got it wrong not so much because respondents were lying to our interviewers but
because poorer, less well-educated voters were less likely to agree to answer
our questions. That was a decisive factor in my miscall."1
Many think this pattern is mostly a thing of the past and I
think it probably is. The examples I found were all from the 80’s and early
90’s. I don’t personally think that very many people felt uncomfortable about
saying that they were planning to vote against President Obama in either of his
presidential elections. This effect, often called the Bradley effect after the
LA mayor, hasn’t been seen as much recently and it technically would not be
applicable to this year’s presidential election, but I think the underlying
principle might actually be more pronounced in this presidential election than
it was in the other elections I mentioned.
As far as I know the white opponents
these candidates ran against didn’t have any particular reason to be called
racist, they were just running against African Americans. But if it’s true that
these African American candidates got an artificial lead in the polls because those
surveyed were worried that showing support for the white candidate would make
them appear racist, then how could there not be even more reluctance for
someone to openly say that they plan to vote for trump. You don’t need me to
tell you about all the controversial things he has said about Mexicans and Muslims
but even if you disregard those he has made plenty of other comments that might
make someone shy about admitting support for them for fear of being seen as
uncivil.
I don’t know the numbers on how his performance compared to his polls
in the primaries but I think those votes came from people who were weren’t
afraid to voice their support for him. Anyone feeling uneasy about voting for
him before he got the nomination had at least two other options. Since securing
the nomination, Trump has received the support of many politicians who were
very critical of him. Rand Paul and Bobby Jindal are both on that list but if
you didn’t know that it’s probably because their endorsements were a lot less
enthusiastic than the endorsements from Scott Walker and Rick Perry. I think
voters also vary in how enthusiastically they endorse Trump. I think a lot of
voters have the mindset Paul Ryan had when he said he was “just not ready” to
endorse Trump. But I think a lot of people are ready to vote for him. They’re
just not ready to admit it.
- Kohut, Andrew. "Getting It Wrong." Getting It Wrong - The New York Times. The New York Times, 10 Jan. 2008. Web. 7 Oct. 2016.
