The front runner doesn't win, at least, not the initial front runner. In season 6 Melinda was consistently great but she only got 3rd. In season 7 David Archuleta came out a front runner at least a few weeks before David Cook. Last year it's hard to say whether the front runner was Danny or Adam, but neither of them won. But with this season I'd say that Crystal was the initial front runner but not by that large or a margin, so I'm not sure my test will hold this year. I think Crystal should win but I think it will depend a lot on tonight's performances. As American Idol gets closer to the end of season the voting becomes more cumulative but I don't think you can say that either contestant is that much better than the other.
Some people think American Idol is going or has gone downhill. I think they just got a bad draw of contestants. The only way it's popularity can go down is for undiscovered talent to lose interest in auditioning and that certainly is possible. There probably are bad decisions that the producers could make that would ruin it's reputation but for first season it had no reputation and they ultimately got Kelly Clarkson, one of their most successful contestant. Even if it's popularity is going down it will most likely be quite a while before the producers decide to cancel it.
I was right.
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